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On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we discuss the future of streaming, which streaming service stands out above the rest, how streamers are bringing more sports programming online, and what kind of programming people watch. Listen to the discussion as host Marcus Johnson welcomes analysts Paul Verna and Daniel Konstantinovic to the podcast.

By the end of 2027, US households without any form of pay TV will outnumber those with some form of pay TV. In this comparison, pay TV includes both traditional pay TV and digitally delivered services known in industry parlance as virtual multichannel video programming distributors (vMVPDs). The revolution will be connected.

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of survey and web traffic data from research firms and regulatory agencies, sales projections, historical trends, company-specific data, reported subscriber numbers of major pay TV providers, and demographic and socioeconomic factors.

Pay TV: Sometimes called cable TV, pay TV refers to TV bundles and digital live TV services. In 2024, 157.1 million people will be pay TV viewers, per our February 2024 forecast. These are divided between traditional and digital pay TV viewers.

Trading places: This year, 137.9 million people are viewing pay TV, versus 125.2 million who have cut the cord, instead streaming content on platforms such as Netflix and watching live TV on distributors like Hulu + Live TV and YouTube TV. By 2024, there will be 143.6 million US non-pay TV viewers and 123.8 million pay TV watchers.

Read the full report, US OTT and Pay TV Viewership Forecast 2024.

Among major streaming services, Netflix鈥檚 time spent share exceeds ad revenues the most, indicating it has the most room to expand.

In an effort dubbed 鈥淣o Locals,鈥� DirecTV is attempting to lower the cost of pay TV by giving consumers a discount if they remove local, over-the-air (OTA) TV stations from their package. Consumers who take advantage of the offer will see up to $140 in savings yearly, per DirecTV. The argument: Pay TV viewership is declining.

Growth in the non-pay TV population鈥攖hose that have cut the cord or were never tethered to begin with鈥攊s more than offsetting the loss of pay TV viewers. Non-pay TV includes the streaming platforms making headlines daily, as well as live TV delivered over the internet through vMVPDs like Hulu + Live TV and YouTube TV.

Pay TV will give way to streaming as cord-cutting accelerates. Pay TV is losing viewers to streaming services in Latin America, but it鈥檚 not doom and gloom鈥攆or now. In certain countries, consumers still consider paid streaming services to be complementary to their pay TV subscription. Brazil is shedding pay TV viewers at an alarming rate.

US OTT subscription revenues (including digital pay TV services such as YouTube TV and Sling TV) are on track to overtake traditional pay TV subscription revenues in 2025 for the first time, per our forecast. Traditional pay TV subscription revenues will continue to decline through the end of our forecast period in 2027.

Currently, less than half of US households subscribe to traditional pay TV, while the number of CTV households has reached 113.1 million (85.3% of the population). In fact, by 2024, eMarketer expects CTV households in the US to more than double traditional pay TV households. Viewers are also spending more time with CTV than ever before.

US advertisers will spend $27 billion on CTV in 2023, per our forecast, as streaming services like Netflix move to an ad-supported model and US households continue to cut the cord on traditional pay TV. In 2023, the number of non-pay TV households will surpass that of pay TV for the first time.

In part one of this two-part podcast episode, we discuss some medium-term predictions that are too specific to be 100% certain about but could still come true, including: why the sentiment towards GenAI might turn, what to expect from Google鈥檚 new consent workflow now that it is not phasing out third-party cookies from Chrome, and why Tubi might be about to leapfrog Hulu, Disney+, and Peacock. Tune in to the discussion with host Marcus Johnson, and analysts Ross Benes, Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf, and Max Willens.

While live sports streaming won鈥檛 alleviate this issue, digital pay TV allows advertisers to measure how their ads perform across channels. The platforms that can provide the best measurement and attribution, whether on their own or with partners, will rise to the top of the live sports streaming playing field. Approach live sports streaming with a full-funnel strategy.

Pay TV households in Canada鈥攖hose with Internet Protocol television (IPTV) or traditional pay TV via cable or satellite鈥攚ill fall to 9.4 million this year. Translated to viewers, that鈥檚 19.0 million across total households. Both pay TV households and viewers are down slightly from 2021 as viewers shift from bundled pay subscriptions to unbundled OTT options. IPTV viewership is climbing.

Netflix鈥檚 advertising strategy is evolving as streaming services raise subscription prices to sway users to ad-supported tiers.

By the end of 2027, US households without any form of pay TV will outnumber those with some form of pay TV. In this comparison, pay TV includes both traditional pay TV and digitally delivered services known in industry parlance as virtual multichannel video programming distributors (vMVPDs). The revolution will be connected.

As the economy improves in 2024, companies will be able to turn their focus toward technological advancements and upcoming regulations.