蘑菇AV

The year started with a flurry of commerce media news, from Meijer Media expanding into off-site channels to Microsoft鈥檚 new ad capabilities.

One of the oldest advertising channels on the internet continues to expand, attempting to break through from its current marginal position.

Launched in Q2 2009 as Mercado Libre Publicidad, then rebranded to Mercado Ads in September 2020, the regional ecommerce giant managed to gain a significant edge over Amazon in Latin America through years of multibillion-dollar investments into fortifying its retail flywheel. (That flywheel comprises ecommerce, logistics, financial services, media, and advertising.).

Even an influx of new retail media networks (RMNs) will not chip away at the share of ad spending allocated to the top two powerhouses.

Marketers face major barriers in measuring campaign success. Privacy regulations are mounting, Google has given consumers the choice to opt out of third-party cookies, and an expanding array of digital channels make tracking the customer journey difficult.

Connected TV is no longer a niche ad channel鈥攊t鈥檚 the new normal. With streaming platforms adding ad-supported tiers and Amazon flooding the market with inventory, CPMs are dropping while ad opportunities expand.

Streaming hours on The Roku Channel: 32.0 billion, up nearly 20% YoY, as Roku's proprietary content continues to attract engagement. Why it matters:. With digital ad dollars shifting toward connected TV (CTV), Roku鈥檚 solid platform revenues signal that it is capturing a significant share of this trend. Political ad spending, increasingly important to CTV overall, could provide a further boost in Q4..

While we don鈥檛 specifically segment retail media spending by ad format, we do so for ecommerce channel ad spending鈥攁 large subset and close proxy of retail media. Retail media encompasses off-site ads, while ecommerce channel ad spending is limited to inventory on retailers鈥� own properties. The relative share of search and display is fairly constant, with both growing rapidly.

Retail has come off its lengthy run of outperforming overall US ad spending growth. While growth will dip below the average for all industries in 2024, the pace is set to pick up again in 2025 and 2026.

Marketers project Q4 revenue gains: Sales to outpace ad spend growth, driven by focus on more efficient spending strategies.

More than $10 billion in incremental ad spending will flow into US retail media in 2025. Amazon鈥攖he largest driver of spending in this channel鈥攈as recently seen modest retail media revenue growth relative to its past performance. As a result, we have revised our retail media forecast down from where it was in H1 2024. (The insights in this report are based on our H2 2024 forecasting data.)

After an unexpectedly solid 2023, the good times will continue for ad spending in most US industry verticals in 2024. Telecom will lead in growth, and numerous categories will outpace their 2023 increases. A few unusual results are on tap as well.

颁丑颈苍补鈥檚 ecommerce disruptors will get disrupted. Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop face a reckoning following breakneck worldwide expansion. The crop of mobile-first ecommerce players with roots in China have taken off with consumers around the world.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss what will happen if either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win the US election and how that will affect inflation, high growth digital advertising channels, and regulatory priorities. Tune in to the discussion with Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Senior Director of Briefings Jeremy Goldman, and Senior Analyst Zak Stambor.

The UK is only behind China when it comes to retail ecommerce as a proportion of total retail sales. That鈥檚 why retail will be 拢1.98 billion ($2.46 billion) ahead of the pack when it comes to digital ad spending, at 拢6.74 billion ($8.38 billion). Digital growth in other industries is affecting retail鈥檚 market share, though.

We still expect gains鈥攁lbeit at a slower growth rate鈥攁cross a variety of digital metrics, including digital ad spending, retail ecommerce, and consumer engagement with digital content. This deck will:. Showcase data illustrating the present and future state of the digital economy.

Amazon鈥檚 share of ecommerce channel ad spending will decline by about a point this year and next year, then slide a bit further in 2025, to 75.1%. Competitors鈥� off-site growth will drive this shift.

2025 will bring significant change to the retail industry: Several of the main trends dominating retail鈥攇enAI, RMNs, and 颁丑颈苍补鈥檚 ecommerce disrupters鈥攚ill look very different this time next year.

It鈥檚 not the fastest-growing channel, but paid search is still a vital component of the digital advertising ecosystem, especially as privacy changes and a potential recession put ad budgets in jeopardy.

TMN ad spending will represent a fraction of total digital ad spending. TMN ad spending as a share of digital ad spending is set to increase modestly, from 0.7% in 2024 to 0.8% in 2026. While commerce media will continue to be dominated by ad spending on RMNs, TMNs make up a distant second tier, ahead of ad spending within the still-nascent financial media network (FMN) cohort.