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The network also forecasts a surge in ecommerce returns, per its 2024 economic outlook

On today's podcast episode, we discuss the most important parts of the EU's new AI Act, what's missing, and how these rules could shape US regulation. "In Other News," we talk about what nefarious GPTs can get up to and a card-linked buy now, pay later (BNPL) offering. Tune in to the discussion with our analysts Carina Perkins and Yory Wurmser.

US financial media network (FMN) spend will hit $1.50 billion in 2026, $1.15 billion higher than this year, per our June 2024 forecast.

It also launched new products, bulked up its buy now, pay later (BNPL) business, and teamed with Big Tech firms Amazon and Microsoft. Stripe and its rivals are under pressure to maintain growth in a fiercely competitive environment. That鈥檚 forcing them to move into fast-growing markets where payments can be improved.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is weighing whether Apple鈥檚 size limits market competition after it launched a BNPL product. The bureau has broader concerns about Big Tech鈥檚 relationship with payments data. The CFPB is also investigating Goldman Sachs' credit card business, which includes the Apple Card. Sliding customer service.

Younger consumers will lean on BNPL to finance their holiday purchases. Gen Zers are more likely than other demographics to finance holiday gifts with buy now, pay later (BNPL). 蘑菇AV 39% of Gen Zers will use BNPL over the holidays, as opposed to just 9% of baby boomers and 21% of Gen X consumers, per i2c and PYMNTS.

Why it鈥檚 worth watching: US retail ecommerce sales during Cyber 5 are expected to hit $37.32 billion this year, up from $36.15 billion in sales in 2021, per our forecasts. And Cyber Monday is expected to make up the biggest share of the long weekend鈥檚 transactions this year, with $11.84 billion in expected sales.

BNPL will mature as providers target Gen Z with shopping app features. BNPL is thriving as adoption grows across generations. Gen Zers are the most frequent BNPL users, but adoption is accelerating across age groups as high interest rates make borrowing on credit cards expensive.

Modern card issuers can help mobile payment services build out and scale financial services offerings beyond cards just as quickly, including buy now, pay later and digital banking. Clients may also have the option to add innovative perks and customized credit card programs, including personalized rewards. To view the full Cash App forecast, click here.

鈥淎ffiliate, to my mind, is one of the most under-discussed and underappreciated spending areas in media and advertising,鈥� our analyst Max Willens said on a recent 蘑菇AV webinar. US affiliate marketing spend will reach $10.72 billion this year and drive $307.27 billion in ecommerce, per our forecast. Driving that spend is a persistently value-conscious consumer, a growing creator economy, and a pivot to publishers with first-party data. Here are five factors contributing to affiliate marketing鈥檚 success.

Issuers like JPMorgan and TD Bank introduced new flexible payment offerings in 2022 to compete with buy now, pay later (BNPL) providers and encourage consumer spending. Visa and Mastercard also ramped up their BNPL programs to help them grab a share of the $75.60 billion BNPL market in the US. Consumers embraced flexible payment options as high inflation persisted through 2022.

Consumers look for deals, flexible payment options this holiday season: Over three-quarters of shoppers plan to hunt for discounts, while BNPL use is set to soar amid financial constraints.

Apple鈥檚 headline-grabbing buy now, pay later (BNPL), savings, and credit card products are just one part of the threat it poses in consumer banking: Its digital platform delivers an almost unbeatable user experience (UX) and is tailor-made for Gen Z. Banks must adapt quickly or risk losing market share.

But providers such as Apple and PayPal have integrated buy now, pay later (BNPL) options into their digital wallets, which help customers pay for installments鈥攚ithout credit card fees. BNPL options can boost conversions and average order values. But digital wallets aren鈥檛 for everyone.

Credit cards will remain the most popular retail payment method in the US through next year, with total credit card transaction value reaching $3.843 trillion in 2025, per our forecast.

While industry observers do not regularly measure or forecast the affiliate marketing ecosystem, these figures were comfortably ahead of projections made in 2016, when the Rakuten Marketing and Forrester Consulting study forecast that affiliate marketing would grow to $6.82 billion by 2020. That same report estimated that spend would reach $5.94 billion in 2018.

Shoppers also took full advantage of flexible payment options: Buy now pay later accounted for 7.6% of online orders, or $1.08 billion of spending, an increase of 16.4% YoY, per Adobe. Sellers push back: While Prime Day was a success from a spending standpoint, events leading up to and during the sale exposed the growing tensions between Amazon and its sellers.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) might steal more market share from credit cards as consumers seek out flexible and interest-free payment options. Credit card rewards may shift to cater to everyday spending categories. Issuers may want to pivot on travel and non-premium segments, emphasize payment flexibility, and add money management tools to support consumers and minimize their losses.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) spending will approach $100 billion for the first time in 2023, by our estimates. But most use remains online, leaving considerable in-store volume for the taking鈥攅specially as providers like Afterpay, Klarna, and Splitit actively court merchants and tech partners to simplify in-store acceptance. 4. Account-to-account (A2A) payments are gaining steam.

The ecommerce boom in Canada means many product categories now sell a significant percentage online. This includes grocery, which we forecast for the first time this year.

Key stat: US digital commerce platform gross payment value growth will slow down this year, increasing only 9.0% compared with last year鈥檚 25.0%, per our forecast.

It launched Ant Bank PayLater, which will let AlipayHK users spread purchases across three-month installment plans.

Economic uncertainty is shifting the payment mix to the detriment of cards: US credit card spending will rise this year but only by a slow 2.0%, per our forecast. Here鈥檚 what will dent credit card market share in 2023:.

Google鈥檚 worldwide ad revenues will total $189.11 billion this year, according to our October 2023 forecast. Apple鈥檚 worldwide ad revenues will total $10.34 billion this year, per the same forecast. Apple鈥檚 ad revenues are growing about twice as fast as Google鈥檚, at 21.2% compared to 10.3%. Google has gotten in hot water related to antitrust laws in the US.