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US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value will reach $94.29 billion in 2024. As the industry matures, user growth is becoming limited鈥攆orcing BNPL fintechs to find new avenues for growth.

From a slew of major partnerships to our forecasts for slower user growth, we look at the biggest BNPL trends of 2024鈥攁nd what they mean for 2025.

US buy now, pay later (BNPL) user growth is slowing, plummeting from 97.0% in 2021 to just 4.1% in 2028, according to our forecast.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value will rise 14.8% annually from 2023 through 2027, as BNPL fintech leaders adapt to a maturing market by diversifying product offerings and harnessing demographic trends.

We expect buy now, pay later (BNPL) users and payment value to continue growing in the coming years, despite a perfect storm of rising investor and regulatory scrutiny, increasing competition, and worsening economic conditions.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) use hit a new high. Online shoppers stretched their budgets via BNPL, spending $991.2 million via the alternative payment method鈥攁 5.5% gain YoY. Our take: Consumers are finding ways to spend big during the holiday season. That鈥檚 why we expect US holiday sales to grow 4.3% this year and ecommerce sales to rise 9.0%.

If you want to learn how to get insights like these delivered to your inbox every day, and get access to our data-driven forecasts, reports, and industry benchmarks, schedule a demo with our sales team.

To view our full BNPL forecast collection, click here. However, BNPL acts more like a companion to private label cards than a replacement. It echoes the relationship between BNPL and general-purpose credit cards: The latter doesn鈥檛 significantly eat into card growth thanks to card-specific benefits like strong rewards programs and credit-building capabilities.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss how a department of justice suggested breakup of Google could change search, the potential impact of Walmart鈥檚 personalized homepages and customer support, what鈥檚 next for the buy now, pay later (BNPL) space, how Tesla鈥檚 new 鈥渃ybercab鈥� could change the world of robotaxis, what charitable donations in America look like, and more. Tune in to the discussion with host Marcus Johnson, director or Briefings Jeremy Goldman, analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf and vice president of Briefings Stephanie Taglianetti.

BNPL is still a small retail payments player. While 73% of US consumers said they鈥檇 heard of BNPL in 2022, just 5.8% said they鈥檇 used it at least once over a 30-day period. US BNPL value will hit $80.77 billion in 2024, per our forecast鈥攋ust 1.1% of total US retail sales.

Klarna will generate $33.38 billion in US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value by 2027, pulling ahead of Affirm in a period of massive growth for BNPL providers, per our forecast.

On today's episode, we discuss why brands should be thinking more about community; Apple rolling out its buy now, pay later offering; consumers' shipping priorities; H&M's new resale program; what in-store retail robots can do; facts about US national parks; and more. Tune in to the discussion with our forecasting writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, vice president of content Suzy Davidkhanian, and analyst Blake Droesch.

Marqeta Flex helps digital wallets and card issuers embed BNPL options, eliminating the need for direct integrations with merchants

How we got here: Gen Zers are more likely than any other generation to use BNPL, but this debt isn鈥檛 usually reflected in their credit scores or overall balances. Among Gen Z respondents, 50% frequently use BNPL, and we forecast 26.4 million US Gen Zers will use it  by the end of 2024.

This could further propel BNPL volume this holiday season as well as catapult merchants鈥� holiday volume.

Gen Zers are driving growth in both emerging and traditional payment methods as they embrace cards, BNPL, and digital wallets. Payment providers must now align their offerings with Gen Z鈥檚 preferences as the cohort鈥檚 spending power grows.

More than one-quarter (27%) of UK adults鈥攁bout 14 million people鈥攗sed BNPL at least once in the last six months of 2022, per data from the UK鈥檚 Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This can greatly boost Affirm鈥檚 user base: We forecast the BNPL provider will have 16.7 million US users in 2025. How it will fare: Affirm will face steep competition attracting UK BNPL users.

Shoppers are more comfortable than ever using BNPL鈥攁nd not just during the holidays. Buy now, pay later (BNPL) volume will hit $18.5 billion this holiday season, with Cyber Monday alone accounting for just shy of $1 billion in spend, per Adobe. That鈥檚 27.6% more than BNPL holiday sales volume in 2022.

Apple is expected to have 65.6 million mobile proximity users in the US in 2025, compared with Google Pay鈥檚 38.7 million, per our forecasts. The added BNPL options help keep Google on a level playing field with Apple, which also offers Affirm and Klarna as payment options. With virtual cards, Google has a leg up on the competition.