蘑菇AV

US retail and ecommerce sales will maintain stable growth over the next five years, with pockets of opportunity emerging from new digital consumers and mobile-first online shopping trends.

This year, most buyer and sales growth will be driven by TikTok Shop, which will convert over 40% of TikTok users into buyers. Social commerce and retail media will converge as Amazon鈥檚 ad partnerships with the social platforms start to pack a punch.

US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value will reach $94.29 billion in 2024. As the industry matures, user growth is becoming limited鈥攆orcing BNPL fintechs to find new avenues for growth.

Growth rates will decline, but digital grocery will remain a key focus for retailers looking to drive incremental sales dollars in ecommerce.

Grocery is the second-largest ecommerce category we track, garnering $220.48 billion in 2025, according to our 鈥淯厂 Digital Grocery Forecast 2025鈥� report. Walmart is the top digital grocery retailer, capturing 31.6% of US grocery ecommerce sales in 2025, followed by Amazon (22.6%) and Kroger (8.6%).

Ecommerce will account for nearly a quarter (24.5%) of US beauty retail sales by 2028, according to our October 2024 forecast.

There will be over 100 million social buyers in the US in 2024, according to our forecast. TikTok Shop, which launched in the US in September 2023, will be the single largest contributor to buyer and sales growth this year.

Although the Cyber Five will hit record ecommerce sales in the US this year at $41.43 billion, the retail event鈥檚 share of total retail ecommerce holiday season sales will continue to shrink, per our July 2024 forecast.

鈥淎ffiliate, to my mind, is one of the most under-discussed and underappreciated spending areas in media and advertising,鈥� our analyst Max Willens said on a recent 蘑菇AV webinar. US affiliate marketing spend will reach $10.72 billion this year and drive $307.27 billion in ecommerce, per our forecast. Driving that spend is a persistently value-conscious consumer, a growing creator economy, and a pivot to publishers with first-party data. Here are five factors contributing to affiliate marketing鈥檚 success.

US retail and ecommerce sales are getting back to their pre-pandemic growth trajectories, but consumer spending may be stunted amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Our revised US resale forecast reflects a slowdown for the ecommerce-dominated market, as the cost of selling one-of-a-kind items online comes into focus.

This year, mobile commerce has not only broken records, but also continued to solidify itself as a driving force behind ecommerce growth. More than two-thirds (67.4%) of the US population will be mcommerce buyers this year, spending $534.8 billion on their mobile devices, per our July 2024 forecast. Here are five key stats that underscore the expanding mcommerce opportunity, plus ways for brands and retailers to capitalize.

60% of US retail professionals say charging customers for returns has resulted in an increase of adoption in their free return methods, while 54% say it has cut down on return rates, according to a September 2024 survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Happy Returns.

This year, US holiday sales will reach a record $1.353 trillion, per our July 2024 forecast. That holiday season is starting earlier and earlier, which means marketers need to be prepared now for shopping to pick up in September and October. The election and consumer concerns about the economy will complicate where advertisers reach consumers and what messaging they use. Here are five stats marketers should see as they prep their holiday campaigns.

84% of US adults believe private label foods are more affordable, according to an August 2024 survey from Ipsos. Nearly as many say private label quality is just as good as, or better than, name brands.

Amazon is on a never-ending mission to speed up delivery: The retailer鈥檚 latest initiatives, including smart glasses and streamlined grocery fulfillment, will help cut costs and encourage shoppers to order more鈥攁nd more often.