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The share of households that reported making a large purchase鈥攕uch as vacations, furniture, and home appliances鈥攐ver the past four months decreased from 61.7% in August to 56.4% in December, per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York鈥檚 December Household Spending Survey. Retailers are feeling the impact of that shift in spending.

That category includes internet-connected devices such as smart speakers, smart appliances, connected cars, and smartwatches. CTV is in a majority of US households. More than two-thirds of the US population will use CTV in 2023, and more than 85% of US households will have at least one internet-connected TV set this year.

The backdrop: Like Home Depot, Lowe鈥檚 CEO Marvin Ellison blamed elevated interest rates for the slump in home improvement sales, as households wait for the Federal Reserve to cut rates before purchasing a new home or embarking on projects.

When it comes to retail memberships, Amazon is the leader, boasting 97.2 million household Amazon Prime members across the US, nearly three-quarters of the country鈥檚 total households, per our forecast. Taking a page from Amazon鈥檚 playbook, retailers like Walmart, Best Buy, and Target are using their own members-only sales events to build out their retail memberships.

In addition to using Prime Day discounts to shop pricier categories like consumer electronics and appliances, consumers have begun to use the shopping event to stock up on more CPG products, including household essentials, grocery, and pet care items, per Numerator data.

The frozen housing market weighs heavily on demand for home improvement and other housing-adjacent categories like furniture and appliances. With elevated interest rates curtailing consumers鈥� desire鈥攁nd ability鈥攖o purchase a home or finance large-scale renovation projects, retailers like Home Depot, Lowe鈥檚, and Wayfair are feeling the pain. A recovery may be far off.

And while Hurricanes Helene and Milton increased demand at improvement retailer Home Depot, it still fell short of our Q3 forecast as consumers deferred big-ticket purchases like appliances and expensive projects like kitchen renovations.

Since 2019, ownership rates for these appliances have almost doubled from 12.6%. Canada ranked No. 43 globally in smartphone ownership (averaging 96.3%). That鈥檚 unusual for a country like Canada, which ranks much higher on the IMF鈥檚 economic development index.

This unrest has also disrupted business operations, heightened consumer pessimism, and forced households to reduce their discretionary spending. Our outlook for Peru鈥檚 ecommerce market has shifted significantly as a result.

They're buying not just big ticket items, but toilet paper, household essentials, all of these things that they're stockpiling just in anticipation of what will come next. Sara Lebow (07:37):. Yeah. Stockpiling toilet paper hasn't historically worked, so hopefully people aren't doing that again. (07:44):.

Of those, 43.8 million will use smart appliances (including kitchen and laundry), up 16.7% year over year. We predict smart home security users will increase 10.1% this year to reach 62.0 million users. Safety is a large driver of smart home technology adoption, per Deloitte. Nearly 3 in 10 (29%) consumers have outdoor security cameras, and 28% have doorbells with built in cameras.

Appliances: Slight decrease in cost, positive ecommerce sales growth, modest increase in ad spend investment, modest ROAS. Author central departments: Modest increase in cost, high ecommerce sales growth, aggressive ad spend investment, outsize ROAS. Automotive: No change in cost, negative growth in ecommerce sales, slight decrease in ad spend, lower ROAS.

While credit card debt is rising, median household savings and checking balances are still considerably higher than they were in 2019 for all income cohorts, per Bank of America. With that said, steady interest rate increases and slowing but persistently high inflation could lead consumers to spend more cautiously in 2023.

It will grow nearly as fast as food and beverage in 2023, at 18.9%, driven by increasing online demand for essential goods such as toiletries, over-the-counter medications, and household supplies.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss why households with no pay-TV (traditional or digital) will be the majority and if livestream shopping in America can become habitual. Tune in to the conversation with Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Principal Forecasting Writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, and Senior Director of Forecasting Oscar Orozco. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.

Total retail sales include the sale of clothing and accessories for men, women, and children, household goods, furniture, cosmetics, and other consumer products made via liverpool.com.mx, suburbia.com.mx, and over the telephone.